The automotive industry is facing major challenges. Software (both for UI/UX and autonomous driving), e-mobility and MaaS are shifting the focus of value creation and changing potential business models. But challenges always come with opportunities. It’s likely that due to the expected macroeconomics the number of sold cars per year continues to increase and at the same time the mobility landscape will change. Subscription models for individual mobility combined with self-driving electric fleets might bring specifically for urban areas significant advantages for users, companies, cities and the environment (e.g. Medium Blog Post).
- Rise of AI: Increasing white collar job automation
- Autonomous Driving: It’s finally within reach
- Robots in the wild: Cleaning, mowing, serving food
- 3D Internet: Browsing becomes walking through web space
- New Space Age: Global internet coverage and Mars colonialization
Rise of AI: Increasing white collar job automation
Artificial power paved the way for the industrial revolution in 1760s. Subsequently only in the last 200 years the global population grew from 1 to more than 7,5 billion humans. What we saw was not only a rapid population growth but also increased specialization, automation and speed in every industry. Many “blue color” jobs can more and more be completed by…
Spotlight on German OEMs
05/2020: Audi quits bid to give A8 Level 3 autonomy [1]
10/2020: Rückzieher bei Technik-Hoffungsträger: BMW iNext fährt doch nicht autonom [2]
Spotlight on USA Tech Companies
10/2020: Tesla to release ‘Full Self-Driving Beta’ to some customers next week [3]
10/2020: Waymo Restarts Robotaxi Service Without Human Safety Drivers [4]
[1] https://www.autonews.com/cars-concepts/audi-quits-bid-give-a8-level-3-autonomy
[3] https://electrek.co/2020/10/12/tesla-release-full-self-driving-beta-customers-next-week/
Latest Update 2020–07–08
ZED 2
- Type: Stereo Camera
- Price: ~$450
- Range: 0.2–20 m
- Field of View: 110° (H) x 70° (V) x 120° (D) max.
- FPS: Up to 100Hz
- ROS Support: https://github.com/stereolabs/zed-ros-examples
Intel RealSense L515
- Type: LIDAR Camera
- Price: ~$349
- Range: 9m
- Field of View: 70° × 55° (±2°)
- FPS: Up to 30fps
- ROS Support: https://github.com/IntelRealSense/realsense-ros
CE30-D
- Type: Solid state LIDAR
- Price: ~$799
- Range: 0.4–28m
- Field of View: 60° × 4°
- FPS: Up to 30fps
- ROS Support: Upon request
RS-Bpearl
- Type: short-range LIDAR
- Price: ~$3.500
- Range: 30m
- Field of View: 360° × 90°
- FPS: Up to 20fps
- ROS Support: https://github.com/RoboSense-LiDAR/ros_rslidar
Ouster OS1
- Type: LIDAR
- Price: ~$3.500
- Range: 120m
- Field…
J.D. Power Ranking 2020
With the initial quality score of 250 PP100 Tesla is unofficially ranked last [1, 5]. “Unlike other manufacturers, Tesla doesn’t grant us permission to survey its owners in 15 states where it is required,” said Doug Betts, president of the automotive division at J.D. Power. “However, we were able to collect a large enough sample of surveys from owners in the other 35 states and, from that base, we calculated Tesla’s score.”
Sales Q2 2019 vs. 2020
In North America BMW sees a minus in sales of almost -40% in the second quarter, Audi -35%, Nissan -50% and Ford -33% [3, 4]. …
Commercial Mowing Market Analysis
Operations (recurring)
Germany: ~3–12bn € per year
- Ca. 6.000 km2 public greens in Germany [1] [2]
- Ca. 0,05 to 0,2 € per m2 [3]
- Ca. 10 times per year [4]
USA: ~$35bn per year
- Ca. $100bn revenue landscaping industry [5]
- Ca. 51% commercial landscaping [6]
- Ca. 70% (=51% full-service + 19% mowing, trimming, etc.) [5]
Commercial mowers (one-time)
Germany: ~0,75bn € pear year [12]
USA: ~$4bn per year [13]
Commercial Sewer System Market Analysis
Germany: ~7bn € per year
- Ca. 560.000 km length of sewer system [7]
- Ca. every 20 years maintenance [8]
- Ca. 250 to 300 € per m of maintenance [9]
USA: ~$30bn per year
- Ca. 1,3 Mio. miles length of sewer system (~ 2.100 km) [10]
- Ca. $42bn infrastructure expenditures in the USA per year [11]
- [1] 5.2 km2 Erholungsfläche + 0,4 km2 Friedhöfe https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/daten/flaeche-boden-land-oekosysteme/flaeche/siedlungs-verkehrsflaeche#anhaltender-flachenverbrauch-fur-siedlungs-und-verkehrszwecke
- [2]…
Google conducted a study for over 2 years and they conducted 200+ interviews with employees. They looked at more than 250 attributes of 180+ active Google teams.
Who vs. How
One of the key findings was that it mattered more how the team interacts than who was in the team. At first, this seemed counter-intuitive since the expectation was that rock star engineers would automatically generate awesome products. But it turns out that the following 5 pillars were more important for the team’s success.
5 pillars
Among the 5 key findings of the study, the psychological safety aspect was most important.
- Psychological safety: Can we…
In 2050 around 70% of the world’s population will live in cities according to the UN [1]. How will urban mobility look like in the next decades? Which mobility products and business models will be successful?
- Deciding Factors: Convenience and Cost
- Urban Mobility Landscape: More Options become available
- Autonomous Driving: Key enabler for transportation revolution
- Single Use Case: Economics for autonomous work commute in the US = 29 Billion USD annually
- Placing Bets: ACES have high expected technical success and economic value
Overall the future of transportation holds the promise to become more accessible for everyone, safer and environmentally friendly…
The innovator’s dilemma by Clayton Christensen was an eye-opener for me to understand why it is so hard for industry leaders to keep up with disruptive technical change. I think it also highlights the power of his concepts, that already around 20 years ago he discussed in a case study (chapter 10) why e-mobility could become a disruptive technical change for the automotive industry.
7 habits of highly effective people by Stephen R. Covey was inspiring to read. I like the character-based viewpoint in contrast to other personal / business books.
I like these 3 TED talks, because of their empowering messages and inspiring ideas.
